From Orangebloods owner Geoff Ketchum. Pretty clear that stars matter to an extent
"For the third straight year, I found myself logging the entire NFL Draft with the purpose of better understanding what’s working and what’s not working as it relates to developing players at the collegiate level from the state of Texas and the entire nation as a whole.
I’ll get to the state of Texas a little later this week because I want the initial focus to be on the nationwide results.
Before we get started, a couple of notes:
1. There are currently 127 FBS programs playing college football in 2014, which means that there are 10,795 scholarship players in college football if every school has maxed out its 85-man scholarship limit.
2. From 2010-2012 (the three classes that made up the 2014 NFL Draft Class almost exclusively), Rivals.com rated on the average 3,754.67 players per year (including JUCO and prep schools), with the average star distribution breakdown looking like this:
Five stars (6.1): 28.67
Four stars (6.0): 28.33
Four stars (5.9): 68.33
Four stars (5.8): 244
Three stars (5.7) 342
Three stars (5.6) 536.33
Three stars (5.5) 700
Two stars (5.4) 750
Two stars (5.3) 458
Two stars (5.2) 508
Two stars (5.1) 56.67
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 34.33
With those numbers serving as the foundation of the average Rivals.com recruiting class numbers over a three-year window, let's break down what the numbers look like over the course of all seven rounds of the NFL Draft this year, beginning with a look at the numbers in the first round:
Five stars (6.1): 8
Four stars (6.0): 4
Four stars (5.9): 2
Four stars (5.8): 3
Three stars (5.7) 8
Three stars (5.6) 3
Three stars (5.5) 1
Two stars (5.4) 3
Two stars (5.3) 1
Two stars (5.2) 0
Two stars (5.1) 0
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 0
Unranked: 0
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers (last year’s number is bolded and in parenthesis):
a. One out of every 3.58 (7.33) five-star (6.1) prospects was drafted in the first round.
b. One out of every 7.08 (19.50) top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
c. One out of every 34.17 (20.92) mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in the first
round.
d. One out of every 81.33 (35.00) low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
e. One out of every 42.75 (54.17) top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
f. One out of every 178.78 (131.17) mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
g. One out of every 700.0 (329.34) low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
h. One out of every 302.0 (545.00) top-tier (5.4/5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
i. Zero out of every 564.67 (655.00) mid-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
j. Zero out of every 34.33 (250.00) low-tier (5.0/4.9) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round
In a more generic sense, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 3.58 five-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
b. One out of every 37.85 four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
c. One out of every 131.53 three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
d. One out of every 451.75 two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
Here's what the numbers look like when we expand the sample-size out to the first three rounds of the draft (99 selections):
Five stars (6.1): 16
Four stars (6.0): 7
Four stars (5.9): 4
Four stars (5.8): 14
Three stars (5.7) 24
Three stars (5.6) 14
Three stars (5.5) 8
Two stars (5.4) 3
Two stars (5.3) 2
Two stars (5.2) 0
Two stars (5.1) 2
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 0
Unranked: 5
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers
a. One out of every 1.79 five-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
b. One out of every 4.05 top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
c. One out of every 17.08 mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
d. One out of every 17.43 low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
e. One out of every 14.25 top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
f. One out of every 38.30 mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
g. One out of every 87.50 low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
h. One out of every 302.00 top-tier (5.4/5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
i. One out of every 282.34 mid-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
j. Zero out of every 34.33 low-tier (5.0/4.9) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds
Broken down by star groupings alone, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 1.79 five-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
b. One out of every 13.62 four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
c. One out of every 34.31 three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
d. One out of every 258.14 two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
Finally, here's the final breakdown of numbers once you include all seven rounds of the draft:
Five stars (6.1): 20
Four stars (6.0): 12
Four stars (5.9): 17
Four stars (5.8): 37
Three stars (5.7) 41
Three stars (5.6) 39
Three stars (5.5) 33
Two stars (5.4) 13
Two stars (5.3) 6
Two stars (5.2) 11
Two stars (5.1) 2
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 0
Unranked: 20
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers
a. One out of every 1.43 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 2.36 top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 4.02 mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
d. One out of every 6.60 low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
e. One out of every 8.34 top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
f. One out of every 13.75 mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
g. One out of every 21.21 low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
h. One out of every 63.58 top-tier (5.4/5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
i. One out of every 43.44 mid-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
j. Zero out of every 34.33 low-tier (5.0/4.9) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds
Broken down by star groupings alone, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 1.43 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 5.16 four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 13.97 three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
d. One out of every 56.47 two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
No. 3 – A few thoughts on the data …
The success among the truly nationally elite in recruiting and the rest of the pack is stunning. The results among five-star prospects in this year’s draft (16 in the first three rounds!), along with the high four-stars was so overwhelming that the reality is that Rivals probably needs to develop a 6th star, with the five-stars getting bumps up to six-stars and the four-stars that make up the rest of the top national 30-60 prospects getting bumped up to-five-stars. Nothing about the data from the last few drafts suggests that the mid- and low- four-star recruits aren’t really on the level of the four-star brothers they share a family name with. The success rate of those two recruiting groups is as close to guaranteed success as it gets in college football recruiting.
b. I’ve said it about 1,000 times over the last few years, but my favorite recruiting tier in the Rivals ranking is the high three-star (5.7) recruit and the data this year showed that as it relates to producing top-end NFL Draft prospects, it outperformed the more celebrated mid- and low-four stars.
Why is this happening? I have a few theories that when added together might help explain why the high three-star prospect is the most underrated commodity in all of recruiting:
* In an era when the recruits being ranked are as closely evaluated as ever before, many of the players in this category end up being players that analysts really like, but haven’t scouted enough in person to have a truer evaluation.
* A lot of kids that have a major issue or two (injuries, academics, off-the-field, etc..) get slotted into this category, at least that’s what history often suggests.
* A lot of very raw prospects that are unrefined players also get slotted here.
* It’s a great recruiting landing spot for the 5-star player that possesses three-star physical tools or vice versa..
Regardless, one of these days more and more people that follow recruiting will start to follow my lead, and they’ll begin to love the high-three star ranking.
As it relates to producing NFL-level talent, it simply doesn’t take a back seat very often to the low- and mid-four stars and what it means at its most basic term is that there’s actually not much difference between a prospect that’s ranked No. 101 versus a guy that is ranked No. 400 or even No. 700."
I’ll get to the state of Texas a little later this week because I want the initial focus to be on the nationwide results.
Before we get started, a couple of notes:
1. There are currently 127 FBS programs playing college football in 2014, which means that there are 10,795 scholarship players in college football if every school has maxed out its 85-man scholarship limit.
2. From 2010-2012 (the three classes that made up the 2014 NFL Draft Class almost exclusively), Rivals.com rated on the average 3,754.67 players per year (including JUCO and prep schools), with the average star distribution breakdown looking like this:
Five stars (6.1): 28.67
Four stars (6.0): 28.33
Four stars (5.9): 68.33
Four stars (5.8): 244
Three stars (5.7) 342
Three stars (5.6) 536.33
Three stars (5.5) 700
Two stars (5.4) 750
Two stars (5.3) 458
Two stars (5.2) 508
Two stars (5.1) 56.67
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 34.33
With those numbers serving as the foundation of the average Rivals.com recruiting class numbers over a three-year window, let's break down what the numbers look like over the course of all seven rounds of the NFL Draft this year, beginning with a look at the numbers in the first round:
Five stars (6.1): 8
Four stars (6.0): 4
Four stars (5.9): 2
Four stars (5.8): 3
Three stars (5.7) 8
Three stars (5.6) 3
Three stars (5.5) 1
Two stars (5.4) 3
Two stars (5.3) 1
Two stars (5.2) 0
Two stars (5.1) 0
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 0
Unranked: 0
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers (last year’s number is bolded and in parenthesis):
a. One out of every 3.58 (7.33) five-star (6.1) prospects was drafted in the first round.
b. One out of every 7.08 (19.50) top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
c. One out of every 34.17 (20.92) mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in the first
round.
d. One out of every 81.33 (35.00) low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
e. One out of every 42.75 (54.17) top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
f. One out of every 178.78 (131.17) mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
g. One out of every 700.0 (329.34) low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
h. One out of every 302.0 (545.00) top-tier (5.4/5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
i. Zero out of every 564.67 (655.00) mid-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
j. Zero out of every 34.33 (250.00) low-tier (5.0/4.9) two-star prospects was drafted in the first round
In a more generic sense, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 3.58 five-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
b. One out of every 37.85 four-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
c. One out of every 131.53 three-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
d. One out of every 451.75 two-star prospects was drafted in the first round.
Here's what the numbers look like when we expand the sample-size out to the first three rounds of the draft (99 selections):
Five stars (6.1): 16
Four stars (6.0): 7
Four stars (5.9): 4
Four stars (5.8): 14
Three stars (5.7) 24
Three stars (5.6) 14
Three stars (5.5) 8
Two stars (5.4) 3
Two stars (5.3) 2
Two stars (5.2) 0
Two stars (5.1) 2
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 0
Unranked: 5
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers
a. One out of every 1.79 five-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
b. One out of every 4.05 top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
c. One out of every 17.08 mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
d. One out of every 17.43 low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
e. One out of every 14.25 top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
f. One out of every 38.30 mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
g. One out of every 87.50 low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
h. One out of every 302.00 top-tier (5.4/5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
i. One out of every 282.34 mid-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
j. Zero out of every 34.33 low-tier (5.0/4.9) two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds
Broken down by star groupings alone, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 1.79 five-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
b. One out of every 13.62 four-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
c. One out of every 34.31 three-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
d. One out of every 258.14 two-star prospects was drafted in the first three rounds.
Finally, here's the final breakdown of numbers once you include all seven rounds of the draft:
Five stars (6.1): 20
Four stars (6.0): 12
Four stars (5.9): 17
Four stars (5.8): 37
Three stars (5.7) 41
Three stars (5.6) 39
Three stars (5.5) 33
Two stars (5.4) 13
Two stars (5.3) 6
Two stars (5.2) 11
Two stars (5.1) 2
Two stars (5.0/4.9) 0
Unranked: 20
Here's what the translates to when you crunch the numbers
a. One out of every 1.43 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 2.36 top-tier (6.0) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 4.02 mid-tier (5.9) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
d. One out of every 6.60 low-tier (5.8) four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
e. One out of every 8.34 top-tier (5.7) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
f. One out of every 13.75 mid-tier (5.6) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
g. One out of every 21.21 low-tier (5.5) three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
h. One out of every 63.58 top-tier (5.4/5.3) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
i. One out of every 43.44 mid-tier (5.2/5.1) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
j. Zero out of every 34.33 low-tier (5.0/4.9) two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds
Broken down by star groupings alone, the numbers look like this:
a. One out of every 1.43 five-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
b. One out of every 5.16 four-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
c. One out of every 13.97 three-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
d. One out of every 56.47 two-star prospects was drafted in seven rounds.
No. 3 – A few thoughts on the data …
The success among the truly nationally elite in recruiting and the rest of the pack is stunning. The results among five-star prospects in this year’s draft (16 in the first three rounds!), along with the high four-stars was so overwhelming that the reality is that Rivals probably needs to develop a 6th star, with the five-stars getting bumps up to six-stars and the four-stars that make up the rest of the top national 30-60 prospects getting bumped up to-five-stars. Nothing about the data from the last few drafts suggests that the mid- and low- four-star recruits aren’t really on the level of the four-star brothers they share a family name with. The success rate of those two recruiting groups is as close to guaranteed success as it gets in college football recruiting.
b. I’ve said it about 1,000 times over the last few years, but my favorite recruiting tier in the Rivals ranking is the high three-star (5.7) recruit and the data this year showed that as it relates to producing top-end NFL Draft prospects, it outperformed the more celebrated mid- and low-four stars.
Why is this happening? I have a few theories that when added together might help explain why the high three-star prospect is the most underrated commodity in all of recruiting:
* In an era when the recruits being ranked are as closely evaluated as ever before, many of the players in this category end up being players that analysts really like, but haven’t scouted enough in person to have a truer evaluation.
* A lot of kids that have a major issue or two (injuries, academics, off-the-field, etc..) get slotted into this category, at least that’s what history often suggests.
* A lot of very raw prospects that are unrefined players also get slotted here.
* It’s a great recruiting landing spot for the 5-star player that possesses three-star physical tools or vice versa..
Regardless, one of these days more and more people that follow recruiting will start to follow my lead, and they’ll begin to love the high-three star ranking.
As it relates to producing NFL-level talent, it simply doesn’t take a back seat very often to the low- and mid-four stars and what it means at its most basic term is that there’s actually not much difference between a prospect that’s ranked No. 101 versus a guy that is ranked No. 400 or even No. 700."
Last edited:
